In the first part of this post, I showed on a couple graphs the clear bubbles that had formed in the stock market during the late 1990s and in the real estate market in the early part of this decade.
There are two main questions that this second post hopes to answer: (1) Why the bubble? (2) What should be done about them?
The answer to the first question is easy. In both cases, it was greedy speculation that drove stock values up higher than they ought to have been. Do you remember the hype in the late '90s about the "new economy" where silly and arcane things like fundamentals (ha!) didn't matter anymore? Do you remember the people who poked fun at that old (billionaire) fuddy-duddy Warren Buffet when he cautioned that those antiquated fundamentals didn't support such a astronomical valuation in the market?
I remember making thousands of dollars in a single trade. I owned one stock that went up 50% in one day, then another 35% the next. It was crazy! You could be a total idiot and make money in the stock market for a year or two there. And that's just what happened...the idiots got into the stock market, thinking that there was nothing to it. They just had to jump on board and enjoy the rising tide. I know people who invested thousands in Enron when it plummeted to penny-stock values.
All that speculation just put more pressure on the bubble until the inevitable.
The same thing started happening in real estate around the same time that the tech stock bubble burst. When the enforcement of the Community Reinvestment Act started forcing bankers and lenders to invent creative ways to finance the home purchases of folks who couldn't afford, or qualify for, a conventional (safe) loan, more people started buying homes. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began purchasing securities and bonds backed by these weak mortgages, more and more lenders got comfortable underwriting the riskier loans. The secondary market for these bonds just fueled the home purchases. The flood of purchases raised the median value of homes in the U.S.
Now, people saw another chance to profit, another wave to ride (and another way to speculate). Middle class folks began buying vacation homes, lake homes, beach homes, rental homes. They started buying homes that hadn't been built yet just to turn around and sell the unbuilt home for a 25% profit! Folks who wanted a home began to see their dream slipping away as prices soared almost out of their reach. So they jumped into a bidding war and paid $800,000 for a house that had been put on the market for just $600,000, just so they wouldn't lose the chance to own a piece of the pie.
All that speculation just put more pressure on the bubble until the inevitable.
In both cases, the stock market, and the real estate market, the inevitable happened, as inevitables often do. The bubble burst.
Now the second question: What to do? This one is easy, but I'm going to have to turn up the volume to make sure you can hear...
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
In case you missed the bold headline today, "U.S Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump." Wait, what? I thought we needed the government to come in and prop up home values for us? You mean that when prices fall far enough (in this case, 15% in the past year) for them to become attractive to buyers, buyers will come out again?
That's right...supply and demand. It works in the stock market and in the real estate market. In the stock market, we are seeing companies whose fundamentals cannot possibly support their lofty valuations going out of business left and right, whose fundamentals were compromised by risky business decisions and blind greed. As company value falls to meet the trendline of supportable growth, so does the stock price. Companies and stock value are wiped out in the process. Pruned, to make room for healthier growth.
Real estate cannot simply go away, so values just drop until that supportable trendline is met, where buyer and seller can be happy, so to speak. Home values are cut down to support healthy, supportable growth.
The markets (especially the housing market) don't need any "help" from central government. If home prices are artificially supported at bubble levels, the inevitable will still occur...it will just be postponed. If sick businesses are propped up through cash infusions from the government, the inevitable is again delayed. Worse, the bad is sustained artificially choking out the new growth through normal competition.
It's time for a bit of a swing back in the direction of laissez-faire policies. Not at the sacrifice of smart regulation, but to save us from ourselves.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Market heal thyself! - Part 1
I'm going to make things fun. Today, I have some graphs for you to look at (ooh, pictures!). They are graphs showing the tech bubble in the stock market as it formed and then burst nearly 10 years ago, followed by the real estate bubble forming and bursting.
First, though, understand that I recognize that the basis of my analysis here is extremely elementary, and completely lacks any consideration of the many facets of the economic conditions surrounding the dot-com bust, or the more recent collapse in real estate prices. The graphs and my purpose for them is merely an exercise in common sense, and devoid of any sophistication. Value it as you may.
First the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1985 to the present (my apologies for the poor quality):
The red line is nothing statistical or algorithmic; it is just a straight red line that I drew to match what I saw as a fairly steady upward trend in the DJIA index in the first 10 years. As you can see, around 1995, the tech bubble begins to inflate. It continues until around 2000 and 9/11/2001, when we have that big turndown, then the market picks back up again, yet still above the long term trendline.
Notice that the red line meets the DJIA value again pretty much today, around an 8000-point value. Many a market watcher have claimed that 7500-8000 is the bottom of this bear market. Is it just coincidence that is the value predicted by the long-term even-growth trend line?
Moving now to the real estate market, and U.S. median home prices, with a bit longer timeframe:
Two data sets are on this chart (mostly it's because it's the first one I found). The first data set shows non-inflation-adjusted home prices (blue line) and the second shows those same prices adjusted for inflation (I don't know where the par value is for these).
Notice, again, the fairly steady rise in value for each of these graphs, followed by a strong deviation from that trend in the late 1990s. I drew red and blue lines to show my own, eyeballed, trendline, discounting the anomoly starting in the late '90s.
It is somewhat interesting, though not at all statistically significant, that both of my superimposed trendlines almost intersect at the same point on the chart. I would expect them to intersect at some point, since inflation is typically positive and so one will always be outpacing the other, but it's likely just coincidence that they come to that nexus near our present-day levels.
But what is the point of all this? Why do I put these graphs up here? If it is not obvious already, these graphs clearly show what has been called the tech bubble and the real estate bubble. Both are glaring short-term deviations from the trendline in values. And what do bubbles do, almost inevitably? They pop. And so they did here, too, sending both stock and home values plummeting back to where they should have been trending to all along.
More in Part 2.
First, though, understand that I recognize that the basis of my analysis here is extremely elementary, and completely lacks any consideration of the many facets of the economic conditions surrounding the dot-com bust, or the more recent collapse in real estate prices. The graphs and my purpose for them is merely an exercise in common sense, and devoid of any sophistication. Value it as you may.
First the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1985 to the present (my apologies for the poor quality):
The red line is nothing statistical or algorithmic; it is just a straight red line that I drew to match what I saw as a fairly steady upward trend in the DJIA index in the first 10 years. As you can see, around 1995, the tech bubble begins to inflate. It continues until around 2000 and 9/11/2001, when we have that big turndown, then the market picks back up again, yet still above the long term trendline.
Notice that the red line meets the DJIA value again pretty much today, around an 8000-point value. Many a market watcher have claimed that 7500-8000 is the bottom of this bear market. Is it just coincidence that is the value predicted by the long-term even-growth trend line?
Moving now to the real estate market, and U.S. median home prices, with a bit longer timeframe:
Two data sets are on this chart (mostly it's because it's the first one I found). The first data set shows non-inflation-adjusted home prices (blue line) and the second shows those same prices adjusted for inflation (I don't know where the par value is for these).
Notice, again, the fairly steady rise in value for each of these graphs, followed by a strong deviation from that trend in the late 1990s. I drew red and blue lines to show my own, eyeballed, trendline, discounting the anomoly starting in the late '90s.
It is somewhat interesting, though not at all statistically significant, that both of my superimposed trendlines almost intersect at the same point on the chart. I would expect them to intersect at some point, since inflation is typically positive and so one will always be outpacing the other, but it's likely just coincidence that they come to that nexus near our present-day levels.
But what is the point of all this? Why do I put these graphs up here? If it is not obvious already, these graphs clearly show what has been called the tech bubble and the real estate bubble. Both are glaring short-term deviations from the trendline in values. And what do bubbles do, almost inevitably? They pop. And so they did here, too, sending both stock and home values plummeting back to where they should have been trending to all along.
More in Part 2.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Polosi's contradiction?
Happened to be watching "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" this morning (one of the Sunday morning talking head shows) which featured House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) talking about Obama's stimulus plan.
George S. asked the Madame Speaker about the merit of some of the spending choices (such as family planning services) reflected in the bill. Pelosi's response included a bit about the tax cuts in the bill.
I won't speculate as to why Congress is throwing a lower-yielding component into the bill (at least not here), but I offer the question as food for thought.
George S. asked the Madame Speaker about the merit of some of the spending choices (such as family planning services) reflected in the bill. Pelosi's response included a bit about the tax cuts in the bill.
"What the economists have told us, from right to left, there is more 'bang for the buck,' that's a term they used, by investing in food stamps and unemployment insurance than in any tax cuts. Nonetheless, we are committed to the tax cuts because they do have a positive impact on the economy, even though not as big as the investments."This begs the question: If our country is in such dire straits at this moment that Congress needs to move quickly to approve $800+ billion of additional "stimulus" or "investment," wouldn't it be prudent to put all of that money in the place that will yield the biggest return? Why not spend the whole kit'n'kaboodle on food stamps and unemployment insurance?
I won't speculate as to why Congress is throwing a lower-yielding component into the bill (at least not here), but I offer the question as food for thought.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Is habeas corpus for non-citizens?
Today, President Obama signed four Executive Orders, some of his first substantive exercises of his new executive powers. One of those orders addressed the longevity of the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which our military has used for years to hold so-called "enemy combatants."
One of the findings of this particular Executive Order reads as such:
Perhaps my sister, a first-year law student, or one of my several other legally-inclined family members can help me navigate this and understand (a) What was the intent of the Framers when it came to the rights of H.C. and non-citizens? (b) What is the most recent constitutional understanding of H.C. in this regard? and (c) How recently has it changed, if at all?
Was Obama accurate in his finding that habeas corpus does extend to non-citizens?
I'm not arguing one way or the other the moral aspect of any of this, simply the constitutionality of it.
One of the findings of this particular Executive Order reads as such:
"The individuals currently detained at Guantánamo have the constitutional privilege of the writ of habeas corpus. Most of those individuals have filed petitions for a writ of habeas corpus in Federal court challenging the lawfulness of their detention."I know the Constitution explicitely denies the removal of such a protection in Article I, Section 9:
"The Privilege of the Writ of Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it."What I am unclear of is the history of this protection and whether it is extended to non-citizens of this country. I tried doing a little research, but found myself rather tied up in knots trying to follow the breadcrumbs of this topic through 200 years of case law. Being that blogging is not my full-time job, and law is only an armchair interest (at least until I send myself to law school), I don't have the time or patience to unravel this mystery.
Perhaps my sister, a first-year law student, or one of my several other legally-inclined family members can help me navigate this and understand (a) What was the intent of the Framers when it came to the rights of H.C. and non-citizens? (b) What is the most recent constitutional understanding of H.C. in this regard? and (c) How recently has it changed, if at all?
Was Obama accurate in his finding that habeas corpus does extend to non-citizens?
I'm not arguing one way or the other the moral aspect of any of this, simply the constitutionality of it.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
A new era of responsibility? Yes...but whose?
Obama spoke for about 20 minutes yesterday, as he addressed the nation for the first time as President. If one phrase seems to have defined his speech for the nation (as chosen by the media), it is his call for a "new era of responsibility."
I like that. If there is one thing that is needed in this country, it is a renewed commitment to responsibility.
The so-called Masters of the Universe, those Wall Street "fat cats," need to understand, and heed, their responsibility to the economic system that they prosper under. The greed for power and money can only foment mistrust in capitalism and sabotage the very underpinnings of a free market.
Those who govern must cast aside their own personal ambitions and recommit themselves to their only Constitutional responsibility, which is to serve the governed.
We, the people, must resolve to take our lives into our own hands and realize that if we relinquish that personal responsibility we are, in turn, relinquishing our liberties.
The last of these is the most urgent, and the most consequential for the future system of government we choose to leave our children.
There were too many examples, during the election, of people who showed evidence that they had cast off the notion of personal responsibility in exchange for a handout, or assurances, from their government.
There was the infamous video of Peggy Joseph who was overcome with relief that with Obama in office she wouldn't have to worry about paying her mortgage or putting gas in her car.
There was the young lady who called into the radio show as I was listening who stressed her belief that the government needs to do more to regulate the stock market.
There was the man who wrote to our local newspaper, just last week, complaining that he had "done what [he] was told" and saved his money, invested in his 401(k), only to lose 40% of it in the past year. He wonders "Where is my bailout?"
It just leaves me to wonder: Where is the sense of personal responsibility that our parents' and grandparents' generation seemed to embrace? Where is the "Just leave me alone and I'll take care of it" attitude?
It also makes me wonder just what Obama meant when he called for this "new era of responsibility?" Looking at the rest of his speech, it does not seem to be personal responsibility that he is commanding us to commit ourselves to.
The first hint of this is in Obama's paraphrasing of the Declaration of Independence. He cites the "god-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness." What are the actual words of the Declaration? That we are "endowed by [our] Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
I may be accused of splitting hairs here, but the difference is important. All that God gives us, according to the Declaration, is the right to pursue happiness. In Obama's version, he says we are all deserving of a chance to pursue happiness. In the first, it is up to us to create the opportunities that might allow us to acheive our successes. In the second, the "chance" to do so must be provided by someone or something outside of ourselves.
The second hint comes midway through the speech when Obama states that we must not ask "whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works -- whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified." None of this is anchored in personal responsibility; it is all rooted in what government can, and should, do for us.
Obama then talks about the purposes of the market and the economy. "The success of our economy has always depended...on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart...because it is the surest route to our common good."
His notion that America's economic success over the years has always depended on how deep runs the wealth it creates is quite backwards. It is not how many people the prosperity reaches that determines the growth of the economy. It is, rather, the growth of the economy that drives prosperity to so many levels.
And, again, "extending opportunity" is not an intended function of government, nor does it drive our wealth. Opportunity exists, by default, as a result of our free market system.
Here it seems that this new responsibility that he beckons us to embrace is one of government towards its citizens, to provide opportunities, comforts, and securities.
The real responsibility we need to recall is to resolve to do our best to dig deep and work hard to make our own opportunities, and to reject the government's overtures to pave the way for us from cradle to grave, knowing that, if the latter is the course we embrace, our "full measure of happiness" will be as limited as it is defined for us.
I like that. If there is one thing that is needed in this country, it is a renewed commitment to responsibility.
The so-called Masters of the Universe, those Wall Street "fat cats," need to understand, and heed, their responsibility to the economic system that they prosper under. The greed for power and money can only foment mistrust in capitalism and sabotage the very underpinnings of a free market.
Those who govern must cast aside their own personal ambitions and recommit themselves to their only Constitutional responsibility, which is to serve the governed.
We, the people, must resolve to take our lives into our own hands and realize that if we relinquish that personal responsibility we are, in turn, relinquishing our liberties.
The last of these is the most urgent, and the most consequential for the future system of government we choose to leave our children.
There were too many examples, during the election, of people who showed evidence that they had cast off the notion of personal responsibility in exchange for a handout, or assurances, from their government.
There was the infamous video of Peggy Joseph who was overcome with relief that with Obama in office she wouldn't have to worry about paying her mortgage or putting gas in her car.
There was the young lady who called into the radio show as I was listening who stressed her belief that the government needs to do more to regulate the stock market.
There was the man who wrote to our local newspaper, just last week, complaining that he had "done what [he] was told" and saved his money, invested in his 401(k), only to lose 40% of it in the past year. He wonders "Where is my bailout?"
It just leaves me to wonder: Where is the sense of personal responsibility that our parents' and grandparents' generation seemed to embrace? Where is the "Just leave me alone and I'll take care of it" attitude?
It also makes me wonder just what Obama meant when he called for this "new era of responsibility?" Looking at the rest of his speech, it does not seem to be personal responsibility that he is commanding us to commit ourselves to.
The first hint of this is in Obama's paraphrasing of the Declaration of Independence. He cites the "god-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness." What are the actual words of the Declaration? That we are "endowed by [our] Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
I may be accused of splitting hairs here, but the difference is important. All that God gives us, according to the Declaration, is the right to pursue happiness. In Obama's version, he says we are all deserving of a chance to pursue happiness. In the first, it is up to us to create the opportunities that might allow us to acheive our successes. In the second, the "chance" to do so must be provided by someone or something outside of ourselves.
The second hint comes midway through the speech when Obama states that we must not ask "whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works -- whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified." None of this is anchored in personal responsibility; it is all rooted in what government can, and should, do for us.
Obama then talks about the purposes of the market and the economy. "The success of our economy has always depended...on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart...because it is the surest route to our common good."
His notion that America's economic success over the years has always depended on how deep runs the wealth it creates is quite backwards. It is not how many people the prosperity reaches that determines the growth of the economy. It is, rather, the growth of the economy that drives prosperity to so many levels.
And, again, "extending opportunity" is not an intended function of government, nor does it drive our wealth. Opportunity exists, by default, as a result of our free market system.
Here it seems that this new responsibility that he beckons us to embrace is one of government towards its citizens, to provide opportunities, comforts, and securities.
The real responsibility we need to recall is to resolve to do our best to dig deep and work hard to make our own opportunities, and to reject the government's overtures to pave the way for us from cradle to grave, knowing that, if the latter is the course we embrace, our "full measure of happiness" will be as limited as it is defined for us.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Changing of the guard
Obama delivered his inauguration address today, as he took the helm of this 230 year old nation. He is the 44th man to take the oath of office. The amazing thing about American government, and what always moves me, is the grace with which we change.
Aside from some classless idiots who have still not moved past the election nor their visceral hatred of Bush the younger, to watch yet another transfer of power in the mightiest nation on earth take place so calmly brought me nearly to tears yet again.
44 individuals leading our nation. That is 44 opportunities over the past 230+ years for new ideas to be implemented. 44 new ways to govern. 44 futures which, at the time, were yet to be crafted.
In 2001, no one knew what Bush would bring nor what he would face. He came into office, the beneficiary of the first budget surplus in decades and inheriting a decade of virtual peace in the world. But dark clouds had been gathering for some time. the dot-com bubble burst just before Bush took his oath, then, a short 8 months later, 9/11 happened. And here we are, after 8 years of Bush, having weathered a future that we could not anticipate.
Now we bring in a new leader and a new set of ideas and ideals. What will the next four years bring? What changes will be offered for us to believe in? Will we, as America, remain the shining city upon the hill, a model for freedom-seeking peoples the world over?
I truly hope so. I pray that the ideas Obama brings us will strengthen our nation while preserving its foundations. If my prayers are answered, he will have my full devotion and support.
Aside from some classless idiots who have still not moved past the election nor their visceral hatred of Bush the younger, to watch yet another transfer of power in the mightiest nation on earth take place so calmly brought me nearly to tears yet again.
44 individuals leading our nation. That is 44 opportunities over the past 230+ years for new ideas to be implemented. 44 new ways to govern. 44 futures which, at the time, were yet to be crafted.
In 2001, no one knew what Bush would bring nor what he would face. He came into office, the beneficiary of the first budget surplus in decades and inheriting a decade of virtual peace in the world. But dark clouds had been gathering for some time. the dot-com bubble burst just before Bush took his oath, then, a short 8 months later, 9/11 happened. And here we are, after 8 years of Bush, having weathered a future that we could not anticipate.
Now we bring in a new leader and a new set of ideas and ideals. What will the next four years bring? What changes will be offered for us to believe in? Will we, as America, remain the shining city upon the hill, a model for freedom-seeking peoples the world over?
I truly hope so. I pray that the ideas Obama brings us will strengthen our nation while preserving its foundations. If my prayers are answered, he will have my full devotion and support.
You gotta know when to walk away
My senior "capstone" class in college, to earn my biology degree, was Ecology. While not formally so, I considered the final paper that I wrote in that class to be my senior thesis, as I leveraged the scientific and research knowledge that I had honed over the previous four years.
The paper, which explored the validity of anthropogenic global warming theory, received an A-minus, which made me quite proud, as I had put countless hours into it. My father, now retired from the coal industry, shared it with one of his colleagues, who agreed that it was well-written, though lacking in one key area: the epilogue.
I had chosen to include a final commentary on the topic to make my views on the state of global warming science known, because it did concern me deeply, as a budding scientist (I have since moved on to other, better suited endeavors). But this epilogue was, quite truly, the one weak area of my paper, and I regret having included it. It morphed my thesis from something to be considered with seriousness to something less credible, as it added subjectivity to a data-driven work.
So it was, today, with the benediction delivered at the inauguration of America's 44th President, Barack Obama. The reverend Joseph Lowery, a civil rights leader and wholly appropriate choice for delivering the final prayer, was on target and moving, and his prayer would have been spot on were it not for that final thought.
I wasn't aware that blacks were still asked to "get in back." That Native Americans were still being held back, systematically. That Asians were angry. That I, a white man, haven't yet embraced what is right.
With this cutesy, superfluous epilogue of his own, Reverend Lowery managed to inject the thing that was rightly absent from today's ceremonies and hopefully stamped out by the election of the first black president.
The paper, which explored the validity of anthropogenic global warming theory, received an A-minus, which made me quite proud, as I had put countless hours into it. My father, now retired from the coal industry, shared it with one of his colleagues, who agreed that it was well-written, though lacking in one key area: the epilogue.
I had chosen to include a final commentary on the topic to make my views on the state of global warming science known, because it did concern me deeply, as a budding scientist (I have since moved on to other, better suited endeavors). But this epilogue was, quite truly, the one weak area of my paper, and I regret having included it. It morphed my thesis from something to be considered with seriousness to something less credible, as it added subjectivity to a data-driven work.
So it was, today, with the benediction delivered at the inauguration of America's 44th President, Barack Obama. The reverend Joseph Lowery, a civil rights leader and wholly appropriate choice for delivering the final prayer, was on target and moving, and his prayer would have been spot on were it not for that final thought.
"Lord, in the memory of all the saints who from their labors rest, and in the joy of a new beginning, we ask you to help us work for that day when black will not be asked to get in back, when brown can stick around ... when yellow will be mellow ... when the red man can get ahead, man; and when white will embrace what is right. That all those who do justice and love mercy say Amen."I'm sure he was trying genuinely to inject his own commentary on the state of race relations in our country, and perhaps provide a final verbal nail in the coffin of the whole sordid subject, but this is not the way to do it.
I wasn't aware that blacks were still asked to "get in back." That Native Americans were still being held back, systematically. That Asians were angry. That I, a white man, haven't yet embraced what is right.
With this cutesy, superfluous epilogue of his own, Reverend Lowery managed to inject the thing that was rightly absent from today's ceremonies and hopefully stamped out by the election of the first black president.
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